Climate-Controlled Self-Storage, Las Vegas, NV
SBA 504 · approximately $9.1 million loan-size band
Trade-area and absorption analysis for a proposed three-story climate-controlled facility.
From our research: Seasoned SBA self-storage loans reached adverse resolution at 1.1 percent, against 7.3 percent across all industries, the lowest of the five property classes the firm tracks. See the SBA Self-Storage Lending Ledger.
Climate-controlled · Drive-up · Boat and RV storage · SBA 7(a) and 504
SBA Feasibility Study LLC is an independent self-storage feasibility study consultant to SBA 7(a) lenders, 504 Certified Development Companies and their borrowers. Each study answers the questions a storage credit now turns on:
The answer is built from a named supply census that includes the pipeline, a household demand model, directly verified competitor occupancy and rates, and a monthly lease-up model tested against SOP 50 10 8.1. It is benchmarked against the firm’s own analysis of 2,896 SBA self-storage loans.
By David Jones, MAI, CCIM, Principal · Last reviewed October 27, 2026 · SBA data as of March 31, 2026
4,300+
Feasibility studies by the principal
534 lenders · 107 CDCs
Have accepted the firm’s studies
2,896
SBA storage loans analyzed
1.1% vs 7.3%
Seasoned storage vs all-industry adverse resolution
SOP 50 10 8.1
In force since October 1, 2026
A self-storage feasibility study consultant tests, independently of the borrower, whether a proposed, expanded or acquired storage facility can lease up, hold its rents and generate the net operating income required to service the proposed SBA debt. The study inventories every competing facility and every pipeline project by name; measures supply per capita today and at the subject’s stabilization date; builds demand from trade-area households; verifies competitor occupancy and rates directly; models lease-up month by month; and reports debt service coverage by year, with the reserve the ramp requires. It closes with a determination addressed to the lender.
The evidence supports the proposed debt under stated assumptions and tested downside cases.
The credit works only if named conditions hold, such as a funded lease-up reserve, a reduced first phase, a revised climate-controlled share or a smaller loan.
The evidence does not support the debt. The study states what would have to change.
SBA does not publish loan performance by industry. The firm computes it from SBA’s loan-level FOIA files and publishes the results, so a credit reviewer can test a storage file against the record of its class.
Exhibit 1
Seasoned SBA self-storage loans reached adverse resolution at 1.1 percent, about one-seventh of the 7.3 percent all-industry rate. Mature 7(a) cohorts charged off at 0.51 percent, the lowest of any industry with a publishable sample in the firm’s analysis.
2,896
Disbursed loans
$3.52B
Approved volume
$1.2M
Average loan
65.7%
7(a) share
286
Approved since FY2024
| Metric | Value | Cohort or period |
|---|---|---|
| Disbursed loans | 2,896 | FY2010–FY2026 through March 31, 2026 |
| Approved volume | $3.52 billion | Disbursed loans, FY2010–FY2026 |
| Average loan | $1.2 million | Disbursed loans, FY2010–FY2026 |
| 7(a) share | 65.7% | Disbursed loans by program |
| 504 share | 34.3% | Disbursed loans by program |
| Approved since FY2024 | 286 loans | FY2024–March 31, 2026 |
| Seasoned cohort | 2,157 loans | Approvals FY2010–FY2021 |
| Seasoned adverse resolution | 1.1% | Purchased, liquidated or charged off; 7(a) and 504 |
| All-industry adverse resolution | 7.3% | Seasoned approvals FY2010–FY2021 |
| Mature 7(a) charge-off by count | 0.51% | Mature 7(a) self-storage cohorts |
| 7(a) program charge-off by count | 6.44% | Mature 7(a) program cohorts |
Top five states by self-storage loan count, FY2010–FY2026
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Texas | 269 |
| California | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 202 |
| Georgia | 137 |
| North Carolina | 129 |
Five states account for 32.6 percent of SBA self-storage loans: Texas, California, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina.
Exhibit 1B
Self-storage carries the lowest loss rates of the five classes the firm tracks, by a wide margin on both measures.
| Class | Loans FY2010–FY2026 | Average loan | Seasoned adverse resolution | Mature 7(a) charge-off by count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-storage | 2,896 | $1.2M | 1.1% | 0.51% |
| RV parks and campgrounds | 1,064 | $1.0M | 3.2% | 1.75% |
| Gas stations | 10,333 | $1.1M | 3.4% | 2.78% |
| Hotels | 17,815 | $2.0M | 4.4% | 2.10% |
| Car washes | 4,863 | $1.2M | 5.4% | 4.56% |
| All industries / 7(a) program | Not comparable | Not comparable | 7.3% | 6.44% |
Disbursed loans only. Adverse resolution means purchased by SBA, liquidated or charged off. Seasoned means approved FY2010–FY2021, allowing at least four years of performance. The charge-off rate is by count on mature 7(a) cohorts. Full data methodology.
The seasoned cohort was approved before most of the 2021–2024 build wave, and facilities financed in that wave now appear disproportionately on CMBS watchlists (Exhibit 6). The class record is a reason a well-built storage file can be approved, not a substitute for supply and lease-up analysis. See the firm’s SBA Feasibility Risk Meter and property-type loss severity research.
Cite as: SBA Feasibility Study LLC, SBA Self-Storage Lending Ledger, FY2010–FY2026 (SBA 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data as of March 31, 2026). Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Download lending ledger CSVSelf-storage is not on the special-purpose examples list in SOP 50 10 8, so conventional or climate-controlled facilities are treated as general-purpose collateral, subject to the lender’s verification of the governing SOP. The binding eligibility question is whether the borrower actively operates the business. 13 CFR 120.110(c) makes ineligible “Passive businesses owned by developers and landlords that do not actively use or occupy the assets acquired or improved with the loan proceeds (except Eligible Passive Companies under § 120.111).”
Exhibit 2
An established operator on general-purpose storage contributes 10 percent under 504. The eligibility risk is not the property type but whether the borrower actively operates the facility.
| Item | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Property status | Self-storage is not a listed special-purpose example in SOP 50 10 8. Cold storage more than 50% refrigerated is listed. The lender verifies classification against the governing SOP. | SOP 50 10 8 special-purpose list; 8.1 lender verification |
| 504 contribution | At least 10% in all other circumstances; 15% for a borrower operating two years or less; 15% for limited- or single-purpose property; 20% when both apply. | 13 CFR 120.910(a) |
| Passive-business test | The operating business must actively use the assets. Eligible Passive Companies are an exception governed by 120.111. | 13 CFR 120.110(c) |
| Third-party management | A management agreement does not by itself make the business passive. The study documents operating plan, staffing, pricing authority and owner oversight. | Firm reading of 13 CFR 120.110(c) |
| Third-party management scale | Extra Space: 1,964 stores; CubeSmart: 872; Public Storage: 493. | Company releases, Q2–Q3 2026 |
No SBA rule makes a feasibility study mandatory for a self-storage loan. 13 CFR 120.160(b) provides only that “SBA may require professional appraisals of the applicant’s and principals’ assets, a survey, or a feasibility study.” Lenders and CDCs commonly order one in four situations.
There is no operating history, and lease-up now commonly runs 24 to 36 months.
New facilities opened, under construction or permitted within the subject’s rings compete for the same tenants during lease-up.
New phases, climate-controlled additions and conversions add space the market has not yet absorbed.
Initial acquisitions and owner buyouts must show 1.25x historical coverage under lender summaries. A facility still in lease-up may not have history to pass.
Exhibit 3
On a storage acquisition, the seller’s historical earnings carry the coverage test. Buying a facility before it stabilizes can fail that test even when the projection works, so the study identifies the loan amount the history supports.
| Transaction category | Coverage test | Equity injection | Quality-of-earnings report | Business valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Acquisition | 1.25x on historical earnings | 10% minimum, not reducible; buyer’s own funds at least half; full-standby seller debt, other standby debt and outside investors limited to 50% of required injection | Required at business purchase price of $3,000,000 or more; lender-commissioned cash proof covering trailing 12 months and two fiscal years | Qualified independent source (ASA, CBA, ABV, CVA, BCA) above $350,000; in-house at or below unless closely related; total debt cannot exceed valuation |
| Owner Buyout | 1.25x historical | Per Appendix 15 | Exempt | As above |
| Business Expansion | 1.15x | Per Appendix 15 | Required at $3,000,000 or more | As above |
| ESOP / Cooperative | Per Appendix 15 | Per Appendix 15 | Exempt | Per Appendix 15 |
SOP 50 10 8.1 applies to loans receiving an SBA loan number on or after October 1, 2026 (Information Notice 5000-882227, September 25, 2026). Loans numbered on or before September 30, 2026 remain under SOP 50 10 8. See the October SBA regulatory update.
The study reconciles the seller’s management-software rent rolls, occupancy history and tax returns to the cash proof. It separates in-place rents from street rates and existing-customer rate increases, tests whether trailing performance reflects a facility still leasing up, and identifies the loan amount the historical earnings support. The acquisition loan default analysis provides the broader credit context.
A lender reads a self-storage feasibility study to decide whether it can rely on it. Seven tests separate a study that survives credit committee and SBA review from one that comes back with questions. They apply to any consultant, including this firm.
| Questions to ask before signing | How this firm answers |
|---|---|
| Who signs, and how many storage studies has that person completed? | David Jones, MAI, CCIM; more than 4,300 feasibility studies over his career across asset classes. No storage-specific count is asserted. |
| How is pipeline supply identified? | Planning and permit records, listing services, site visits and planning-staff enquiries; every project named. |
| How is competitor occupancy verified? | Directly, not from self-reported data. |
| What ramp and reserve are modeled? | Calibrated to local openings, stressed at plus 6 and plus 12 months, with the reserve sized. |
| Which SOP governs? | The version governing the loan number. |
| What happens if questions return? | Support through lender acceptance. |
Scope a storage credit against these seven tests.
Request a fixed-fee quoteDavid Jones, MAI, CCIM, Principal, has completed more than 4,300 feasibility studies over his career across self-storage, hotels, RV parks, fuel and convenience, car washes, multifamily and healthcare. He is the author and signatory of every study the firm issues. SBA Feasibility Study LLC was founded in 2019 at 171 17th Street NW, Atlanta, GA 30363. Its studies have been accepted by 534 SBA 7(a) lenders and 107 Certified Development Companies across 50 states.
Every study is signed by the firm, with the analyst and reviewer identified. No white-labelling. No unsigned drafts that later become the basis for a credit decision. The firm is not a lender, broker, developer, REIT, management company or storage operator.
SBA 504 · approximately $9.1 million loan-size band
Trade-area and absorption analysis for a proposed three-story climate-controlled facility.
SBA 504 · related cold-storage engagement
A distinct feasibility scope for refrigerated storage and logistics.
Determinations are the firm’s independent findings. Credit and eligibility decisions rest with the lender, the CDC and SBA.
Self-storage feasibility revolves around a radius study that quantifies supply and demand within concentric distance rings around the subject site. This methodology is unique to self-storage and differs fundamentally from the trade area approaches used for hotels, gas stations, or restaurants.
| Radius Ring | What It Captures | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|
| 1-Mile Radius | Immediate neighborhood. Highest capture rate. Walking/biking distance for urban markets. | Population, households, household income, existing storage SF, SF per capita |
| 3-Mile Radius | Primary trade area in most suburban markets. Industry practice defines the primary trade area as the area supplying most of a facility’s customers, typically a ring of 1 to 5 miles. | Same metrics plus competitor inventory, occupancy rates, street rates, new supply pipeline |
| 5-Mile Radius | Secondary trade area. Full competitive landscape and the outer limit of customer draw in most suburban markets. | Market-wide supply/demand balance, saturation index, population growth trends |
| 7-Mile+ Radius | Tertiary/rural extension. Used only in low-density rural markets where trade areas are larger. | Regional demand indicators, employer/military base proximity, seasonal population (college, tourism) |
The radius study produces a supply/demand snapshot at each ring. The critical output is the net rentable square feet per capita, which the firm benchmarks against national and regional averages to determine whether the market is undersupplied, balanced, or oversupplied. Where roads, rivers, or highways shape travel, the firm also tests drive-time trade areas, because a competitor two miles away across a barrier may not compete at all.
Square footage per capita (SF/capita) is the industry’s standard saturation metric. It divides the total rentable square footage of all storage facilities within a radius by the population within that same radius. The thresholds below are a widely used industry rule of thumb, not a published standard, so the firm uses them as a screen and confirm conclusions with a household demand model.
| SF Per Capita (3-Mile) | Market Condition | Implication for New Development |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5.0 SF | Significantly undersupplied | Strong development opportunity. Market can absorb substantial new supply. |
| 5.0 to 7.0 SF | Moderately undersupplied | Good opportunity if population growth supports demand. Watch for pipeline supply. |
| 7.0 to 9.0 SF | Balanced to slightly oversupplied | Feasible only with strong competitive differentiation or population growth above 2% annually. |
| 9.0 to 11.0 SF | Oversupplied | High risk. New supply will compress occupancy and rates across the market. Most lenders will resist. |
| Above 11.0 SF | Severely oversupplied | Not feasible for new development in most scenarios. Acquisition of existing stabilized facility may still work. |
The national average is roughly 7.3 to 7.6 SF per capita depending on the data source (TractIQ: 7.28 as of September 30, 2026; StorageCafe: 7.6), and it masks enormous variation, from 2.0 square feet in Washington, DC and 2.4 in New York State (TractIQ) to far higher levels in smaller Sun Belt and Plains metros. Sun Belt markets with high population turnover (Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte, Nashville) have higher per-capita demand than stable Midwest markets. College towns, military base communities, and markets with high renter populations also demonstrate above-average demand. The feasibility study must benchmark against regional norms, not the national average.
Today
6.77 SF/person
At stabilization, excluding subject
7.94 SF/person
At stabilization, including subject
9.18 SF/person
Supply per capita and published reference points
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Today | 6.77 |
| Excl. | 7.94 |
| Incl. | 9.18 |
| National | 7.28 |
| Low supply | 6.8 |
| High supply | 14 |
National reference: 7.28 SF/person (TractIQ, September 30, 2026). Yardi Matrix, June 2026: below 6.8 SF/person, 88.3% average occupancy; above 14 SF/person, 82.5%.
The screen flags; the household demand model decides. A per-capita figure is a supply measure, not a demand measure.
Population at stabilization = population × (1 + annual growth ÷ 100) raised to years. Today = existing SF ÷ current population. Stabilization supply = existing + pipeline (+ subject for the inclusive screen), divided by stabilization population.
Per capita supply shows saturation; it does not measure demand. The firm builds demand directly: households in the trade area, multiplied by the share of households that rent storage, multiplied by the average square footage rented, plus business demand. Penetration is drawn from industry demand studies and calibrated to the trade area; StorageCafe reports that about a third of Americans currently use storage. Penetration is adjusted for the trade area’s renter share, mobility, household growth, and military or student populations using Census American Community Survey data. Supportable demand minus occupied existing supply and weighted pipeline supply equals the residual demand available to the subject.
Self-storage has one of the longest lease-up periods in the SBA lending portfolio. Facilities that once stabilized in about 18 months now commonly take 24 to 36 months as new supply competes for the same tenants (Inside Self Storage, 2026 lender outlook), and in a 2025 lender survey, 88.2 percent of lenders named absorption risk as their top concern. This extended ramp period is the single most important factor in the DSCR projection and the most common source of feasibility study failures.
Illustrative lease-up path for a new facility in a balanced market; each study calibrates the curve to local absorption of recently opened competitors.
| Phase | Timeline | Typical Occupancy | Cash Flow Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand opening / initial absorption | Months 1 to 6 | 15% to 30% | Negative cash flow. Revenue does not cover operating expenses plus debt service. |
| Early ramp | Months 7 to 12 | 30% to 50% | Cash flow improving but still typically below breakeven on a debt-serviced basis. |
| Mid-ramp | Months 13 to 24 | 50% to 70% | Approaching breakeven. DSCR may reach 0.90x to 1.10x. |
| Stabilization | Months 24 to 36 | 85% to 90% for well-located facilities (REIT same-store portfolios ran 90.4 to 94.2 percent in Q2 2026; facilities backing CMBS loans averaged about 85 percent) | DSCR reaches target levels (1.15x to 1.40x). Revenue covers all obligations. |
This lease-up period creates a cash flow gap that the feasibility study must explicitly address. The borrower needs sufficient capital reserves, or a lender-structured interest-only or reserve arrangement, to carry 18 to 36 months of sub-breakeven operations. SBA lenders will ask how the borrower plans to cover debt service during the ramp. The feasibility study must model the monthly cash flow trajectory through lease-up, not just the stabilized annual projection, and demonstrate when the DSCR crosses the lender's minimum threshold.
Sensitivity and stress testing. Every study includes a DSCR matrix that flexes stabilized occupancy, street rate versus in-place rate, concessions, lease-up duration (plus 6 and plus 12 months), and property taxes after reassessment, alone and combined. Lenders see both the month the DSCR crosses their threshold and how much cushion remains if the lease-up runs long.
During lease-up, payroll, property taxes, insurance and debt service run at full weight while occupancy builds. The study models occupancy month by month, identifies the first month in which cash flow covers debt service and the first month run-rate coverage clears the lender’s standard, and sizes the reserve that carries the deficit until then. Lenders now cite 24 to 36 months to stabilization, against about 18 historically, and in one 2025 lender survey 88.2 percent named absorption risk as their top concern. In the illustrative case below, stretching lease-up from 18 to 36 months raises the reserve needed to carry debt service from about $455,000 to about $943,000.
Yardi Matrix national average, September 2026
Stabilized revenue
$1,112,883
Stabilized NOI
$706,110
Annual debt service
$555,116
Year 1 DSCR
-0.04x
Year 2 DSCR
0.63x
Year 3 DSCR
1.20x
Stabilized DSCR
1.27x
Break-even occupancy
75.3%
First cash-positive month
Month 26
First month at target coverage
Month 30
Reserve required
$780,080
| Months to stabilization | Reserve required |
|---|---|
| 18 | $455,170 |
| 24 | $617,625 |
| 30 | $780,080 |
| 36 | $942,535 |
| Month | Physical occupancy | NOI | Cash flow after debt service |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | $-18,427 | $-64,687 |
| 1 | 12.6% | $-15,851 | $-62,111 |
| 2 | 15.2% | $-13,276 | $-59,535 |
| 3 | 17.8% | $-10,700 | $-56,960 |
| 4 | 20.4% | $-8,124 | $-54,384 |
| 5 | 23.0% | $-5,549 | $-51,808 |
| 6 | 25.6% | $-2,973 | $-49,233 |
| 7 | 28.2% | $-397 | $-46,657 |
| 8 | 30.8% | $2,178 | $-44,081 |
| 9 | 33.4% | $4,754 | $-41,506 |
| 10 | 36.0% | $7,329 | $-38,930 |
| 11 | 38.6% | $9,905 | $-36,354 |
| 12 | 41.2% | $12,481 | $-33,779 |
| 13 | 43.8% | $15,056 | $-31,203 |
| 14 | 46.4% | $17,632 | $-28,628 |
| 15 | 49.0% | $20,208 | $-26,052 |
| 16 | 51.6% | $22,783 | $-23,476 |
| 17 | 54.2% | $25,359 | $-20,901 |
| 18 | 56.8% | $27,935 | $-18,325 |
| 19 | 59.4% | $30,510 | $-15,749 |
| 20 | 62.0% | $33,086 | $-13,174 |
| 21 | 64.6% | $35,662 | $-10,598 |
| 22 | 67.2% | $38,237 | $-8,022 |
| 23 | 69.8% | $40,813 | $-5,447 |
| 24 | 72.4% | $43,389 | $-2,871 |
| 25 | 75.0% | $45,964 | $-295 |
| 26 | 77.6% | $48,540 | $2,280 |
| 27 | 80.2% | $51,116 | $4,856 |
| 28 | 82.8% | $53,691 | $7,432 |
| 29 | 85.4% | $56,267 | $10,007 |
| 30 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 31 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 32 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 33 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 34 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 35 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 36 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 37 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 38 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 39 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 40 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 41 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 42 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 43 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 44 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 45 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 46 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 47 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
| 48 | 88.0% | $58,842 | $12,583 |
Illustrative. Only the street-rate default is drawn from published data. A real file uses the subject’s trade-area rates, verified competitor occupancy and the absorption of recently opened facilities.
Unit mix optimization is a critical feasibility study deliverable for self-storage. The mix of climate-controlled interior units versus conventional drive-up units directly affects construction cost, rental rates, operating expenses, and ultimately DSCR.
| Dimension | Climate-Controlled | Drive-Up (Conventional) |
|---|---|---|
| Construction cost per SF | About $90 to $120 (multi-story; builder estimates; firm planning range) | About $50 to $65 (single-story metal; builder estimates; firm planning range) |
| Typical rent premium | About 12.6 percent for a 10x10 nationally ($134 vs $119, StorageCafe, September 2026), wider in hot or humid markets | Baseline |
| Occupancy at stabilization | 80% to 90%+ | 85% to 92% |
| Tenant retention | Higher (longer average stay, less seasonal churn) | Lower (more seasonal, more transient) |
| Operating cost | Higher (HVAC, elevator maintenance, fire suppression) | Lower (minimal mechanical systems) |
| Target demographic | Higher-income, longer-term, business storage, document storage | Price-sensitive, vehicle/boat/seasonal, contractor storage |
| Market trend | Growing share of new development, especially multi-story projects in metro markets; climate-controlled street rates fell 2.1 percent year over year in September 2026 (Yardi Matrix) | Declining share but still dominant in rural/suburban |
The optimal mix depends on the trade area demographics, competitive supply composition, and climate. Markets with high household incomes, significant business density, and hot/humid or very cold climates support a higher share of climate-controlled units (60% to 80%). Markets with lower incomes, more transient demand, and mild climates support a drive-up-heavy mix (60% to 70%). The feasibility study models both configurations and identifies which mix maximizes stabilized DSCR.
Published occupancy data for self-storage competitors is unreliable. Facilities self-report occupancy to aggregators, and there is a systematic incentive to overstate. A competitor reporting 92% occupancy may be counting reserved-but-vacant units, including employee/owner units, or using a denominator that excludes non-rentable space.
The firm verifies competitor occupancy through direct methods: calling facilities as a prospective customer to inquire about availability by unit size, checking online reservation systems for real-time availability, and conducting physical site visits to observe drive-up unit activity (lock checks on a sample of units). These verification methods are more reliable than published data and, in the firm’s field experience, frequently show actual occupancy below what is reported. This discrepancy directly affects the demand calculation and the subject facility’s projected absorption rate.
The self-storage sector is dominated by publicly traded REITs that provide transparent financial and operating data. Three public REITs now dominate: Public Storage, which closed its all-stock acquisition of National Storage Affiliates on July 22, 2026 and owned and/or operated 4,764 facilities at September 30, 2026; Extra Space Storage, which absorbed Life Storage in 2023 and owns or operates 4,410 stores including third-party managed locations; and CubeSmart, with 662 owned and 872 managed stores. Together they own, co-own or manage roughly 10,700 locations. Their quarterly earnings reports, investor presentations, and 10-K filings provide operating benchmarks that are more reliable than any industry survey.
The firm benchmarks the subject facility’s projected operating metrics against REIT performance data for the same MSA or region. For example, if REIT facilities in the subject’s MSA are achieving $18.50 per SF annually and the subject facility projects $22.00 per SF, the study must explain the premium with specific competitive advantages (newer facility, better location, underserved submarket). If the REIT achieves $18.50 and the subject projects $14.00, the study must explain the discount and demonstrate that the lower revenue still produces an adequate DSCR.
REIT data also provides same-store revenue growth trends, operating expense ratios, and cap rate benchmarks that inform the financial model's growth assumptions and exit valuation analysis. REIT data also shows how far institutional operations outperform the typical independent: Public Storage's same-store NOI margin was about 74% in Q2 2026, and same-store revenue ranged from minus 0.6% (Public Storage) to plus 2.4% (Extra Space) as rate competition continued; in Q3 2026 Public Storage’s same-store revenue turned positive at 0.5 percent. An independent's projected expense ratio and revenue growth must be benchmarked against that reality, not adopted from it.
The single most common reason self-storage feasibility studies reach a negative conclusion is pipeline supply. A market that appears undersupplied at 6.0 SF per capita today may have 3 facilities under construction and 2 more in permitting that will push the ratio above 9.0 SF per capita within 18 months. By the time the subject facility completes construction and begins its own 18 to 36 month lease-up, the market may be significantly oversupplied.
The firm identifies pipeline supply through four sources: local planning department permit records (building permits and conditional use approvals), commercial real estate listing services, physical site visits to identify construction activity, and conversations with local planning staff about pending applications. The pipeline analysis is not optional. A feasibility study that quantifies existing supply without addressing planned additions is incomplete and will not withstand lender scrutiny. Nationally, the pipeline is shrinking: projects under construction equal about 2.1% of existing stock, and Marcus & Millichap counts 54.7 million square feet underway nationally. Local pipelines still vary widely, so the national trend never substitutes for a trade-area census.
Every figure carries its source and period. The firm updates this section when a primary release changes the answer. The U.S. Self-Storage Market Research 2026–2028 report supplies wider industry context.
Exhibit 4
Deliveries are falling to their lowest level since 2016, but 13.4 percent of today's inventory opened in the last five years and much of it is still leasing up. Falling supply has not yet lifted rates.
| Indicator | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 completions | roughly 53 million square feet, about three-quarters of the previous ten-year average, the smallest since 2016; inventory +2.2%. | Marcus & Millichap (September 2026). |
| First-half 2026 completions | nearly 27.8 million square feet, the lowest first half since 2014. | same. |
| Under construction | 54.7 million square feet nationally, with the Northeast at 29.7%. | same. |
| Under construction as a share of stock | 2.1% (594 projects; Yardi Matrix, September 2026); 1.40% (TractIQ, September 30, 2026). The definitions differ. | Yardi via CRE Daily (October 22, 2026); TractIQ. |
| Last five years | 291.3 million square feet delivered, 13.4% of an inventory above 2.2 billion square feet. 2025 deliveries were 58.3 million square feet. | StorageCafe, using Yardi Matrix data (September 2026). |
| Three-year deliveries | 8.7% of starting inventory. | Yardi Matrix (October 2026). |
Annual deliveries (million square feet): actual and forecast
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 actual | 58.3 |
| 2026 forecast | 53 |
Exhibit 5
Street rates were still falling in September 2026, and facilities backing CMBS loans ran 5 to 9 points below REIT occupancy. A projection that assumes REIT occupancy or rate growth for an independent facility needs local evidence.
| Indicator | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| National street rate | $16.21 per square foot in September 2026, −1.2% month over month and −1.8% year over year. Climate-controlled −2.1% YoY; non-climate −1.6% YoY. August 2026: $16.39, −1.9% YoY. | Yardi Matrix (September 23 and October 22, 2026). |
| 2026 street-rate path | February $16.10 (−1.1% YoY); March $16.07 (−2.0%); June $16.48 (−1.5%); July −1.6%; August −1.9%; September −1.8%. | Yardi Matrix, via Multi-Housing News. |
| Metro breadth | in September 2026 only New York City (+0.6%) and Austin (+0.1%) posted positive annual rate growth. | Yardi Matrix (October 2026). |
| REIT vs non-REIT asking rates | REIT −3.3% YoY vs non-REIT −1.0% (September 2026). | Yardi Matrix. |
| REIT same-store occupancy | ; Public Storage: 92.5% average (Q2), 92.2% (Q3).; Extra Space: 94.2% ending Q2.; CubeSmart: 90.4% average Q2. | company releases (July–October 2026). |
| Facilities backing CMBS loans | 85.3% (Yardi Matrix, June 2026; South 82.9%, West 87.6%); 85.12% (Trepp); 85.7% (TractIQ). REIT-owned 90.8% vs third-party-managed 86.3%. | Yardi via CRE Daily; Trepp; TractIQ. |
| Saturation and occupancy | facilities in areas above 14 square feet per person averaged 82.5% occupancy, against 88.3% where supply is below 6.8 square feet. | Yardi Matrix (June 2026 data). |
| 2026 forecast | vacancy down 20 bp to 10% by year-end; average asking rent down 0.8% to $1.18 per square foot, a fourth straight annual decline. | Marcus & Millichap (September 2026). |
National advertised annual street rate, reported months in 2026 ($/SF/year)
| Month, 2026 | Annual street rate ($/SF) |
|---|---|
| Feb | 16.10 |
| Mar | 16.07 |
| Jun | 16.48 |
| Aug | 16.39 |
| Sep | 16.21 |
Only months with a dollar rate in the supplied releases are plotted; intervening months are not estimates.
Exhibit 6
CMBS self-storage delinquency is near zero, but nearly 30 percent of balances sit on watchlists, concentrated in loans written in 2021–2024. 84.4 percent of 2023-vintage balances are on watchlists. The stress is in lease-up economics, not yet in defaults.
| Indicator | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Self-storage CMBS universe | $23.7 billion across about 4,800 loans and 15,600 properties; 0.05% delinquent. | Trepp, via CRE Daily and Yahoo Finance (July 2026). |
| Watchlist share | nearly 30% of outstanding balances. | same. |
| Watchlist by vintage | 2023 84.4%; 2024 56.6%; 2021 26.6%; 2025 4.7%. | same. |
| Watchlist by metro | Atlanta 50.31%; Chicago 48.4%; Miami 38.79%. | same. |
| All-CMBS delinquency, for context | 7.85% (August 2026). | Trepp, via MBA Newslink. |
CMBS balances on watchlists by origination vintage, July 2026
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 26.6% |
| 2023 | 84.4% |
| 2024 | 56.6% |
| 2025 | 4.7% |
Exhibit 7
Three REITs now own, co-own or manage about 10,700 locations, and two of them lend to independent operators. An SBA-financed facility competes with REIT pricing and, increasingly, with REIT capital.
| Indicator | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Public Storage–National Storage Affiliates | announced March 16, 2026; closed July 22, 2026 at 0.14 Public Storage share per NSA share. PS Canada ($1.2 billion, 68 properties) closed September 1, 2026. | Public Storage 8-K and releases. |
| Public Storage | owned and/or operated 4,764 facilities, about 339 million net rentable square feet, at September 30, 2026. Q3 2026 same-store revenue +0.5%, NOI +0.5%, margin after indirect costs 75.2%. | Public Storage Q3 2026 release (October 26, 2026). |
| Extra Space Storage | 4,410 stores owned and/or operated (June 30, 2026). Q2 2026 same-store revenue +2.4%, NOI +3.5%. | Extra Space Q2 2026 release. |
| CubeSmart | 662 consolidated stores and 872 third-party managed. Q2 2026 same-store revenue +0.8%, NOI −0.7%. | CubeSmart Q2 2026 release. |
| REIT lending to independents | ; Public Storage originated $34.0 million of bridge loans at 7.7% in Q3 2026 and held $445.3 million of notes receivable at 9.0%.; Extra Space's bridge-loan balances were about $1.5 billion at June 30, 2026, after $140.6 million of Q2 originations. | company releases. |
Exhibit 8
Average cap rates near 6.6 percent and prices about 20 percent below the 2022 peak mean that development cost, not demand alone, now decides many ground-up files.
| Indicator | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Average cap rate | 6.59% (2026); 10-year Treasury 4.76% in late August. | Marcus & Millichap (September 2026). |
| Price per square foot | about 20% below the 2022 peak. | same. |
| Transactions | count up nearly 20% and dollar volume nearly 50% year over year through June 2026. | Marcus & Millichap, via CRE Daily. |
| Listed facilities | average asking cap rate 6.92% across 59 listings; median $84.88 per square foot (August 15, 2026). | TractIQ. |
| Climate-controlled premium | a 10x10 unit at $134 climate-controlled vs $119 non-climate, about 12.6% (firm arithmetic). | StorageCafe (September 2026). 4.10 FEASIBILITY STUDY VS MARKET STUDY VS APPRAISAL H2: Self-storage feasibility study vs market study vs appraisal |
Exhibit 9
The study’s lease-up schedule is the bridge to the appraiser’s as-is and as-stabilized values, so the two documents must use the same absorption curve.
| Market study | Feasibility study | Appraisal |
|---|---|---|
| Radius and drive-time supply, demand and pipeline. | Adds budget, unit mix, monthly lease-up, reserve, coverage under stress and an independent determination. | Income, sales comparison and cost approaches; as-is value is stabilized value less the cost of reaching stabilization. |
| Can the market absorb the space? | Can the project service the proposed debt? | What is the property worth? |
The feasibility study and the appraisal answer different questions, but in an SBA file they have to agree. The study tests whether the facility can lease up and service its debt; the appraisal converts its income into value and sets the collateral position.
The appraisal follows USPAP (2024 edition, which has no fixed expiration date) and, for federally regulated lenders, the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines, which define market value and require as-is and, where relevant, prospective as-complete and as-stabilized values. SBA requires a USPAP appraisal by a state licensed or certified appraiser for 7(a) loans over $500,000 secured by commercial real estate, and construction loans are appraised at prospective value upon completion. Because self-storage is not a listed special purpose property, SBA’s separate land, building, equipment, and intangible allocation for going-concern special purpose appraisals does not normally apply. The Appraisal Institute's dedicated text is Self Storage Economics and Appraisal, 2nd edition, by R. Christian Sonne, MAI, with Jonathan Lang (June 2025).
The primary approach. Stabilized net operating income is built from rental income at supportable street and in-place rates, less vacancy, concessions, and credit loss, plus ancillary income, less operating expenses including a market management fee, property taxes at post-sale or post-construction assessment, and replacement reserves. Direct capitalization values the stabilized facility; the average self-storage cap rate was about 6.59% in 2026 (Marcus & Millichap), listed facilities averaged a 6.92 percent asking cap rate across 59 listings in August 2026 (TractIQ), and prices sit about 20 percent below the 2022 peak (Marcus & Millichap), so an independent facility’s rate must reflect its own size, quality, and market. A discounted cash flow captures lease-up for new or non-stabilized facilities.
For a facility still in lease-up, the as-is value equals the stabilized value less the present value of the costs of getting there: rent lost during absorption, concessions, marketing, and an allowance for the entrepreneurial incentive a buyer would require to take on lease-up risk. This deduction is the bridge between the feasibility study's lease-up schedule and the appraiser’s as-is and as-stabilized values.
Comparable sales are analyzed on price per net rentable square foot and price per unit, adjusted for occupancy, climate-controlled share, unit mix, age and construction (single-story versus multi-story), location and visibility, and the remaining lease-up. Sales of stabilized REIT-quality facilities and sales of lease-up properties are not interchangeable comparables without adjustment.
Land value plus replacement cost new, including indirect costs (the firm’s planning range is 10 to 20 percent of direct costs) and entrepreneurial incentive, less depreciation. It is a key test for new construction: if the stabilized value does not exceed total development cost with an adequate developer margin, the project is not financially feasible as proposed.
Self-storage is generally valued as real estate. In St. Bernard Self-Storage, L.L.C. v. Hamilton County Board of Revision, 115 Ohio St.3d 365, 2007-Ohio-5249, the Supreme Court of Ohio upheld the rejection of a contractual allocation of about half the purchase price to goodwill because the owner “failed to prove the existence of any business value separable from the value of the real property”; later decisions, including Hilliard City Schools (2011-Ohio-2258), describe storage rental income as relating to rights appertaining to the land and improvements. Ancillary income such as truck rental or tenant protection programs may carry a business component, so the appraisal should state how it is treated.
Every appraisal tests highest and best use as vacant and as improved: legally permissible, physically possible, financially feasible, and maximally productive. Storage is often the highest and best use of irregular, utility-burdened, or transitional sites, and its simple buildings retain conversion flexibility, one reason it is treated as general-purpose collateral. The feasibility study supplies the financially feasible test.
| Approach | What it measures | Where it carries weight | What the feasibility study supplies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income (direct cap and DCF) | Value of stabilized and lease-up cash flow | Every operating and proposed facility | Demand, rates, occupancy, lease-up curve, expenses, stabilized NOI |
| Sales comparison | Price per net rentable SF and per unit | Markets with recent comparable sales | Occupancy, unit mix, and rate data to match comparables |
| Cost | Cost to build plus incentive, less depreciation | New construction feasibility test | Stabilized value versus total development cost |
| Highest and best use | Whether storage is the most productive use of the site | Every appraisal, especially new development | The financially feasible test: demand and pro forma |
The lender’s environmental review follows SBA’s process for the subject’s NAICS code and site history. Where a boat or RV storage site dispenses fuel, SBA’s fuel-station rules apply. Environmental reports must be dated within one year of the SBA loan number. The governing SOP must be checked for each loan.
Exhibit 10
For self-storage, SBA eligibility is rarely the obstacle. Supply, lease-up and the acquisition coverage test decide the file.
| Requirement | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Property status | Self-storage is not a listed special-purpose example in SOP 50 10 8. Cold storage more than 50% refrigerated is listed. The lender verifies classification against the governing SOP. | SOP 50 10 8 special-purpose list; 8.1 lender verification |
| 504 contribution | At least 10% in all other circumstances; 15% for a borrower operating two years or less; 15% for limited- or single-purpose property; 20% when both apply. | 13 CFR 120.910(a) |
| Passive-business test | The operating business must actively use the assets. Eligible Passive Companies are an exception governed by 120.111. | 13 CFR 120.110(c) |
| Acquisitions | Appendix 15 tests depend on transaction category, historical coverage, injection, quality of earnings and business valuation. | SOP 50 10 8.1 lender/advisory summaries; Exhibit 3 |
| Appraisal | USPAP appraisal by a state-licensed or certified appraiser on 7(a) loans over $500,000 secured by commercial real estate; construction at prospective completion value. Check the governing SOP. | SBA SOP appraisal requirements; lender verification |
| Environmental | Follow SBA’s process for the NAICS code and site history. Fuel-dispensing boat or RV storage follows fuel-station rules. Reports must be within one year of the SBA loan number; check the governing SOP. | SBA SOP environmental requirements; lender verification |
| FY2027 7(a) fees | 0% upfront guaranty fee on loans of $700,000 or less to rural businesses, manufacturers and food-supply-chain businesses. | Information Notice 5000-881797, September 3, 2026; effective October 1, 2026 |
| 7(a) maximum | $5,000,000. | 13 CFR 120.151 |
| Size standard | Reported at $34 million average annual receipts, NAICS 531130. The August 20, 2026 proposal would consolidate standards without reducing any; comments extended to November 20, 2026; not final. | SBA Table of Size Standards; 91 FR 53741 |
The SOP reference, CDC compliance guide, site and regulatory methodology and financial projection methodology explain the supporting review. The study is an independent analysis, not an advocacy business plan.
15-minute scoping call; every inquiry answered within one business day.
Written proposal with firm fixed fee within one business day.
Structured data request within one to two business days of engagement; midpoint findings review on substantial engagements; support through lender acceptance.
Self-storage feasibility studies cost $4,900 to $15,000, fixed before work begins. Single-format facilities with well-documented competitive data fall toward the lower end. Large mixed-format developments, conversions and secondary markets requiring extensive primary research push toward the upper end. The fee does not depend on the conclusion or whether the loan closes. See the cost and timeline guide.
Delivery is 10 to 15 business days from a complete data response. Competitor verification through calls, online availability checks and site visits is the timeline constraint and is not compressed.
Low historical losses do not eliminate a financing gap. Our asset-class debt-support research compares self-storage cap rates with 7(a) and 504 coverage floors and explains the resulting equity requirement.
Work with the firm’s self-storage feasibility study consultants: David Jones’s consultant profile, the SBA feasibility study consultants practice, inside a self-storage study and the Las Vegas climate-controlled storage case study.
Program rules are checked against 13 CFR Parts 120 and 121 and SBA SOP 50 10 8 and 8.1. Every market figure names its source and date. Last reviewed October 27, 2026. Where a governing-SOP check is identified above, classification and detailed terms must be verified by the lender; this page does not assert independent verification of those documents.
Publisher and archive links are identified as such; they are not represented as verified direct release URLs.
Page rebuilt for lender and sponsor engagement. Added the SBA Self-Storage Lending Ledger with five-class comparison; eligibility and acquisition exhibits; lease-up reserve calculator and supply screen; and 2026 supply, rate, occupancy, CMBS watchlist, consolidation and valuation exhibits. Corrected street-rate change, supply history, per-capita supply, climate premium, REIT counts, cap rates and the St. Bernard statement. Removed unsupported pipeline forecasts and appraisal citations.
Our SBA feasibility study consultants prepare storage and vehicle storage studies for lenders, CDCs and sponsors. See pricing, methodology or request a fixed fee quote.
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