The hidden variable

Charge-off rate tracks loan size, not lender quality

Each point is an institution with 500+ recent originations and 300+ seasoned ones. Sixty lenders.

Below national rateAbove 12%

Lenders averaging above $1 million cluster near 2%. Lenders averaging under $200,000 cluster above 12%. A small working-capital loan to a young business is a different credit from a seven-figure acquisition, and it fails more often by design — which is why the guarantee exists.

0.88%Mountain America FCU — lowest, $399k average loan

20.29%BayFirst National Bank — highest, $181k average loan

5.19%median high-volume lender

Source: Analysis of SBA 7(a) FOIA loan-level data (as of 31 March 2026). Charge-off rates computed on seasoned FY2015–FY2019 originations; volume on FY2021–FY2025. Cancelled approvals excluded. Lender names as reported, not consolidated across corporate families. Published by sba-feasibility-study.com.