Age-matched failure

FY2023 loans failed faster than any cohort measured

Share of each origination year charged off within 24 months of approval.

Comparable cohortsPandemic support periodPeak-rate cohort

Comparing cohorts at the same age removes the distortion in portfolio-level statistics. FY2019–FY2021 are shaded because pandemic deferment and stimulus suppressed failures that would otherwise have appeared. Against the last normal cohorts — FY2016 to FY2018 — FY2023 is worse than all three.

0.917%FY2023, charged off within 24 months — highest in the series

0.832%FY2018, the worst pre-pandemic cohort

0.214%FY2021, the same measure two years earlier

Source: Analysis of SBA 7(a) FOIA loan-level data (as of 31 March 2026). Cancelled approvals excluded. Charge-off timing measured from approval date to recorded charge-off date. Published by sba-feasibility-study.com.